STUDIO NOIR · Risk Register

Every risk that could hurt or kill this business. What it looks like. What kills it. What we do to prevent it.

Rewritten for Phase 1 reality. The capital at risk is much smaller than the original plan, so the risk profile is different. But it is more concentrated: with $85K there is zero room for mistakes.

Scoring

Each risk is scored on Likelihood (1 to 5, how likely is it to happen) and Impact (1 to 5, how bad if it does). Score = L times I.

• 20 to 25 = P1 (could kill the business)
• 12 to 19 = P2 (serious, must actively manage)
• 6 to 11 = P3 (watch and prevent)
• 1 to 5 = P4 (accept and monitor)

The P1 risks (could kill Phase 1)

R01. We spend the reserve on buildout and run out of rent money

• What it looks like: Buildout overruns, opening delays, or member ramp is slower than model. The $25K reserve is dipped into. Two months later we cannot cover rent.
• Score: Likelihood 4 x Impact 5 = 20. This is the biggest risk we face.
• Owner: Trill enforces. Taj respects.
• Prevention: The reserve is walled off in a separate business savings account from Day 1. Buildout overruns come out of buildout scope (cut mirrors count, skip signage upgrade), not reserve. Monthly cash-position check between Trill and Taj, first Monday of every month.
• What we do if it triggers: Immediate scope cut on remaining spend. Emergency instructor discount to fill classes fast. Trill’s line of credit as absolute last-resort bridge (not planned, not counted on).

R02. The landlord refuses to allow pole installation after lease signing

• What it looks like: We sign a lease. Buildout begins. Landlord discovers pole rigs and tries to force removal or charge additional fees.
• Score: Likelihood 3 x Impact 5 = 15. Fatal if it happens.
• Owner: Trill + RDU real estate attorney.
• Prevention: Pole rigging clause written into every lease before signing. Photos and specs of pole rig systems attached to the lease as an exhibit. No verbal agreements. If landlord says “sure, we can figure that out later,” we walk.
• What we do if it triggers: Attorney enforces the lease clause. If lease is silent on it, we are in litigation territory, which is why we do not sign silent leases.

R03. Taj gets pulled into daily operations

• What it looks like: An instructor calls in sick. Nobody else can cover. Taj covers. Then it happens again. Then she is doing setup on Saturday mornings. Then she is doing intake calls Wednesday nights. Six months in she is exhausted, resentful, and disconnected from being the founder.
• Score: Likelihood 4 x Impact 5 = 20.
• Owner: Trill enforces. Taj holds the line.
• Prevention: Hard rule from Day 1. If nobody can cover a class, we cancel the class and refund/credit the members. That is a better trade than losing the founder.
• What we do if it triggers: Instructor bench of 4+ contract instructors so someone can always cover. Reduce class schedule if instructor bench is not deep enough. Never solve staffing shortage by moving Taj to the floor.

The P2 risks (serious, active management)

R04. Member ramp is slower than model

• What it looks like: We open with 25 members from the waitlist. By month 6 we have 40, not the 50 we modeled. Cash flow is negative for longer than planned. Reserve drains.
• Score: Likelihood 4 x Impact 4 = 16.
• Prevention: Pre-launch waitlist target: 200+ names by opening day. Charter member offering (first 30 members get lifetime rate lock). Aggressive Tia-led launch content in the 90 days before opening. Corporate wellness soft outreach starts pre-open.
• What we do if it triggers: Trigger the referral bonus program (existing member gets a month free for every 2 referrals who sign up). Add a limited drop-in package at premium price to bring cash in without diluting membership tiers. Extend the reserve runway by cutting instructor hours.

R05. Instructor injury or member injury on the pole

• What it looks like: Someone falls, gets hurt. Insurance claim. Possible lawsuit. Insurance premium spikes. Reputation damage on social media.
• Score: Likelihood 3 x Impact 5 = 15.
• Prevention: Proper liability insurance (see 14_LEGAL_IP/03_INSURANCE). Signed waivers with pole-specific language for every member. Quarterly rigging inspection by certified rigger. Progression rules (no advanced moves until prerequisites are documented as complete). Full 07_OPERATIONS/02_SAFETY_LIABILITY.
• What we do if it triggers: Insurance handles the claim. Trill and attorney handle any external communications. No apologies without attorney review, no admissions of fault, but real care shown to the injured party. Root cause review within 48 hours.

R06. Instructor turnover in Phase 1

• What it looks like: Our lead instructor leaves for another studio. Members feel it. Word spreads. Retention wobbles.
• Score: Likelihood 3 x Impact 4 = 12.
• Prevention: Pay instructors 15 to 20% above market rate for the Triangle. Give lead instructors a small revenue share on class fill (bonuses when class hits capacity). Build a bench of 3 to 4 rotating contract instructors so no single loss is catastrophic.
• What we do if it triggers: Bench instructor covers immediately. Trill uses dance world network to recruit replacement within 30 days.

R07. Someone else opens a competing pole studio in North Hills or Fenton before we do

• What it looks like: A well-funded chain (or a well-connected local) opens a similar concept in the same neighborhood within 6 months of us.
• Score: Likelihood 2 x Impact 4 = 8. The Triangle luxury movement lane is not oversaturated, so the odds are low. If it happens, it hurts.
• Prevention: Move fast. LOI signed by Q4 2026. Warm launch through Taj’s audience so we get the mindshare first. Category-of-one positioning (luxury hospitality + pole) that no commodity pole studio can copy.
• What we do if it triggers: Compete on hospitality standard and brand, not on class variety or price. Deepen member relationships. Accelerate Phase 2 planning if the market is bigger than we thought.

R08. Phase 2 capital raise fails

• What it looks like: Phase 1 works but we cannot raise the $3.5M to $5M for Phase 2. STUDIO NOIR stays at boutique scale forever.
• Score: Likelihood 3 x Impact 3 = 9. Even the worst-case here is not fatal, it just caps the outcome.
• Prevention: Start Phase 2 conversations 12 months before we need the capital. Build relationships with RDU-area SBA lenders (Live Oak Bank in Wilmington is the country’s largest SBA 7(a) lender) through the boutique operating months. Cultivate 3 to 5 potential HNW angels through Taj + Trill’s network so we are not starting from zero when we ask.
• What we do if it triggers: Run Phase 1 as the permanent business. Reinvest earnings. Consider a smaller Phase 2 (e.g. move to a 4,000 to 6,000 square foot space and add a recovery wing but skip the broadcast floor). Franchise later off a smaller flagship.

The P3 risks (watch and prevent)

R09. HVAC in the leased space cannot handle a hot pole class

• Score: L 3 x I 3 = 9.
• Prevention: HVAC capacity check by licensed HVAC contractor before lease signing. Portable spot cooling as backup if needed.

R10. Data breach or member privacy incident

• Score: L 2 x I 4 = 8.
• Prevention: Cyber insurance rider (small business version, ~$500 per year). Booking software vendor must be SOC 2 compliant or equivalent. Never store credit cards on our own systems (Mariana Tek or similar handles payment). Staff training on member confidentiality (celebrity and athlete members expected once brand builds).

R11. Reputation attack on social media

• Score: L 3 x I 3 = 9.
• Prevention: Crisis communications playbook drafted pre-open. Tia trained on statement authorship. No employee posts about members. Taj + Trill final approval on any Studio Noir public response.

R12. Weather event forcing temporary closure

• Score: L 2 x I 3 = 6.
• Prevention: Business interruption insurance rider. Digital fallback (recorded classes emailed to members) even without a full digital platform.

R13. Booking software goes down and members cannot register

• Score: L 2 x I 3 = 6.
• Prevention: Uptime SLA in vendor contract. Manual booking backup via SMS from Taj’s phone.

The P4 risks (accept and monitor)

R14. Interest rate shift affecting Phase 2 SBA loan availability

Monitor at Phase 2 raise time, not now.

R15. Regional convention or event demand shift

Not material to Phase 1 or Phase 2.

R16. Small apparel line underperforms

Not material to Phase 1 core business.

Review cadence

• Weekly: Trill scans P1 risks. Any signals get a same-day conversation with Taj.
• Monthly: Full register reviewed at the Founder Financial Review (first Monday). Any risk that moved gets rescored. New risks added.
• Quarterly: Deeper review with any advisor board members.
• Annually: Full rewrite of the register on the anniversary of grand open.

Ownership summary