STUDIO NOIR · Revenue Model
Where the money comes from, in what quantity, by when.
Phase 1 model. Every number tied to a Phase 1 assumption. Phase 2 is a separate exercise in 2028.
The five revenue lines Phase 1
Phase 1 keeps it simple on purpose. Five revenue lines. Membership dominates.
| # | Line | Share of Phase 1 revenue (target) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Membership subscriptions | 85% |
| 2 | Drop-in classes (from month 3) | 6% |
| 3 | Private lessons | 5% |
| 4 | Small merch | 3% |
| 5 | Special events (workshops, brand collabs, occasional) | 1% |
Phase 2 opens up: personal training, corporate wellness, retail boutique, café, digital streaming, THE NOIR INVITATIONAL entry fees. Not before.
Line 1: Membership subscriptions
The core. Recurring monthly revenue is what makes this a business and not a series of transactions.
Pricing
| Tier | Monthly price |
|---|---|
| Access | $199 |
| Studio | $349 |
Ramp schedule (Phase 1 base case)
Assumes soft open in June 2027, full open in July 2027. Months numbered from full open.
| Month | New members added | Total active | Monthly membership revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 (soft open) | +15 charter | 15 | $3,885 |
| 1 | +7 | 22 | $5,698 |
| 2 | +8 | 30 | $7,770 |
| 3 | +7 | 37 | $9,583 |
| 4 | +6 | 43 | $11,137 |
| 5 | +5 (churn starts: 4% of 43 = 2 lost) | 48 net | $12,432 |
| 6 | +5, -2 churn | 51 | $13,209 |
| 7 | +5, -2 churn | 54 | $13,986 |
| 8 | +5, -2 churn | 57 | $14,763 |
| 9 | +5, -2 churn | 60 | $15,540 |
| 10 to 12 | steady state, gross adds match churn | 60 to 65 | $15,540 to $16,835 |
End of Year 1: 60 active members, $15,540/mo membership revenue.
Year 2 target: 70 to 80 members, $18K to $21K/mo membership revenue.
Ranges
| Case | End of Y1 members | End of Y1 monthly membership revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Worst case (slower ramp, higher churn) | 40 | $10,360 |
| Base case | 60 | $15,540 |
| Best case (waitlist converts strong, low churn) | 85 | $22,015 |
Line 2: Drop-in classes
Open drop-in registration starts month 3. Reserved slots after members book (members always get priority).
| Line | Assumption |
|---|---|
| Drop-in price | $35 per class |
| Weekly drop-ins Phase 1 base case | 6 to 8 |
| Monthly drop-in revenue | $840 to $1,120 |
Year 1 average (starting month 3): approximately $700/mo.
Line 3: Private lessons
Booked through Mariana Tek. Taj offers a limited number personally (as founder access) at premium rate; lead contract instructor covers the rest.
| Line | Assumption |
|---|---|
| Private lesson 1-on-1 rate | $120 per hour |
| Semi-private 3-person rate | $80 per person per hour |
| Monthly private lessons (blended) | 10 to 12 |
| Monthly private lesson revenue | $960 to $1,200 |
Line 4: Small merch
Print-on-demand drop plus a small private-label grip aid. No warehouse. No inventory risk.
| Line | Assumption |
|---|---|
| Units per month | 8 to 15 |
| Average unit price | $50 |
| Monthly merch revenue | $400 to $750 |
Year 1 average: approximately $500/mo.
Line 5: Special events
Occasional. A quarterly members-only workshop (Sunday brunch pole class + prosecco). A brand collaboration with a Triangle designer or wellness brand. Not counted on for regular cash flow, but adds a little.
| Line | Assumption |
|---|---|
| Events per year | 4 to 6 |
| Revenue per event | $500 to $1,500 |
| Annual event revenue | $2,000 to $9,000 |
Total Phase 1 revenue
Base case, end of Year 1
| Line | Monthly revenue |
|---|---|
| Membership (60 members) | $15,540 |
| Drop-ins | $700 |
| Private lessons | $1,080 |
| Small merch | $500 |
| Special events (amortized) | $250 |
| Total | $18,070 |
Annual revenue at end-of-Y1 run rate: $217K.
Year 2 base case, mid-year
| Line | Monthly revenue |
|---|---|
| Membership (75 members) | $19,425 |
| Drop-ins | $1,000 |
| Private lessons | $1,300 |
| Small merch | $700 |
| Special events (amortized) | $400 |
| Total | $22,825 |
Annual revenue at end-of-Y2 run rate: $274K.
3-year Phase 1 revenue summary
| Year | Members (end) | Annual revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 (partial, opens July 2027) | 60 | $132K partial |
| Year 2 (full year 2028) | 75 | $270K |
| Year 3 (full year 2029, if Phase 2 delayed) | 80 to 85 | $310K |
If Phase 2 activates in mid-2029, Phase 1 boutique either continues as a second Triangle studio or folds into flagship membership. That decision gets made at Phase 2 open.
Bear case (things go slower)
- 40 members by end of Year 1 (not 60)
- 5% churn instead of 4%
- Fewer drop-ins, fewer private lessons
- End of Year 1 monthly revenue: $12,000
- Annual run rate: $144K
- Phase 1 still cash-flow positive to Taj at roughly $2K/mo net
- Phase 2 raise deferred by 12 months
Bear case survives. It just takes longer to compound.
Bull case (things go faster)
- 85 members by end of Year 1
- 2.5% churn
- Drop-ins fill more slots than expected
- End of Year 1 monthly revenue: $25,000
- Annual run rate: $300K
- Taj drawing $12K to $15K per month clean by month 9
- Phase 2 raise conversation activates 6 months early
Bull case accelerates Phase 2 timeline. Same phased structure.
Assumptions we check every 90 days
- Blended member price actually landing at $259 (not lower from tier mix skew)
- Monthly churn actually at 4% or below
- Class fill actually averaging 8 members per class
- Drop-in volume actually hitting 6+ per week from month 3
- Waitlist actually converting at 15 to 25%
If any of these break for two consecutive quarters, we adjust. See 05_CASHFLOW_FORECAST for what the response looks like.