STUDIO NOIR · 3-Year Financial Model
Phase 1 (2027 to 2029) modeled at base case under the two-lever capital stack ($85K cash + landlord TI + equipment lease). Phase 2 (2029+) modeled roughly, rebuilt in 2028 with real numbers.
Every line traceable to unit economics ([[unit-economics]]) or budget ([[startup-budget]]).
Year 1 (2027, partial — opens mid-year)
Assumes full open July 2027. Six months of operating revenue in the year.
| Category | Amount | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Membership revenue (ramped from 15 to 60 members) | $67,000 | Half-year run rate |
| Drop-ins, private lessons, merch | $12,000 | Ramp partial |
| Total revenue Y1 | $79,000 | |
| Rent (12 months, includes TI amortization) | $60,000 | $5,000/mo × 12 |
| Utilities + insurance | $12,000 | |
| Booking software | $6,000 | |
| Contract instructors | $28,000 | Ramps with class schedule |
| Equipment lease | $4,800 | $400/mo × 12, starts at delivery |
| Cleaning + supplies + marketing + processing + accounting | $17,000 | |
| Merch cost of goods | $3,000 | |
| Total operating costs Y1 | $130,800 | |
| Operating cash flow Y1 | -$51,800 | Loss funded by opening reserve draw |
Year 1 note: Y1 is negative because we’re funding a full year of rent during a half-year of full operations. The $85K opening budget includes $45K reserve to cover this. By month 5 of operations we are cash flow positive month-over-month.
Year 2 (2028, first full year)
Assumes 65 to 75 active members average across the year.
| Category | Amount |
|---|---|
| Membership revenue | $210,000 |
| Drop-ins | $10,000 |
| Private lessons | $13,000 |
| Merch + events | $10,000 |
| Total revenue Y2 | $243,000 |
| Rent | $60,000 |
| Utilities + insurance | $12,500 |
| Booking software | $6,000 |
| Contract instructors | $34,000 |
| Equipment lease | $4,800 |
| Cleaning + supplies + marketing + processing + accounting | $23,000 |
| Merch cost of goods | $5,000 |
| Total operating costs Y2 | $145,300 |
| Operating cash flow Y2 | +$97,700 |
Distribution to Taj Y2: approximately $78,000 (spread across the year, after quarterly Founder Financial Review). Retain balance in cash reserve refill and working capital cushion.
Year 3 (2029)
Two scenarios depending on whether Phase 2 activates.
3A. Phase 2 not activated (boutique continues as permanent)
Assumes 75 to 85 active members steady across the year.
| Category | Amount |
|---|---|
| Membership revenue | $240,000 |
| Drop-ins | $13,000 |
| Private lessons | $15,000 |
| Merch + events | $12,000 |
| Total revenue Y3 | $280,000 |
| Rent | $60,000 |
| Equipment lease | $4,800 |
| All other operating costs (small increases for instructor bench, insurance) | $85,000 |
| Total operating costs Y3 | $149,800 |
| Operating cash flow Y3 | +$130,200 |
Distribution to Taj Y3: approximately $110,000.
3B. Phase 2 activates (buildout begins Q3 2029)
Boutique continues operating through Phase 2 buildout. Same operating cash flow as 3A. Trill spends Q1 and Q2 2029 raising Phase 2 capital.
Phase 2 raise target: $3.5M to $5M.
Phase 2 capital stack (rough draft, rebuilt in 2028): - Phase 1 retained earnings distributed to Taj, reinvested into Phase 2: $120K to $250K - Trill’s cash contribution (if any): $100K to $500K - SBA 7(a) loan: $750K to $1.5M - Landlord TI allowance (flagship scale): $500K to $1.2M - Equipment financing (broadcast + recovery + fitness): $150K to $300K - HNW angel round (5 to 10 accredited investors): $1.5M to $2.5M
Phase 2 buildout Q3 2029 through Q2 2030. Flagship opens Q3 or Q4 2030.
Rolling P&L summary (base case, Phase 1 only, 3 years)
| Line | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 (3A) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $79,000 | $243,000 | $280,000 |
| Operating costs | $130,800 | $145,300 | $149,800 |
| Operating cash flow | -$51,800 | +$97,700 | +$130,200 |
| Cumulative operating cash flow | -$51,800 | +$45,900 | +$176,100 |
Plus Phase 1 opening capital of $85,000 in.
3-year cash summary: - Cash in (Taj’s $85K opening): $85,000 - Cash out (Year 1 loss): -$51,800 - Cash in (Year 2 profit): +$97,700 - Cash in (Year 3 profit, 3A scenario): +$130,200 - Distributions to Taj (Y2 + Y3): -$188,000 - Cash remaining in business end of Year 3: approximately $73,000 (reserve fully refilled at $45K + working capital ~$28K)
Compared to the old cash-only plan, 3-year distributions to Taj are ~$42K lower ($188K vs $230K), but Taj’s cash at risk was $20K lower throughout AND the buildout was materially better AND the business ends Year 3 with a bigger reserve and cleaner unwind optionality if Phase 2 slips.
Bear case (things run slow)
- Year 1 loss: -$70,000 (deeper draw on reserve; hits $15K low point)
- Year 2 cash flow: +$30,000
- Year 3 cash flow: +$55,000
- Distributions Y2 + Y3: $45,000 to Taj
- Reserve back to $45K by end of Year 3
- Phase 2 delayed to 2031
Bear case survives (reserve holds). Phase 2 timeline slips. Wind-down optionality clean if things stay bad through end of Year 3.
Bull case (things run faster)
- Year 1 loss: -$22,000 (fast ramp covers most opex)
- Year 2 cash flow: +$155,000
- Year 3 cash flow: +$195,000
- Distributions Y2 + Y3: $260,000 to Taj
- Phase 2 raise conversation activates in Q4 2028 (6 months early)
- Phase 2 opens Q1 or Q2 2030
Key line items to watch monthly
- Revenue vs plan (biggest signal)
- Member count vs plan
- Class fill rate
- Churn rate
- Reserve balance vs $45K target
- Instructor cost as % of revenue (target under 20%)
- Rent + lease + insurance as % of revenue (target under 40% steady state)
What this model does not include
- Taxes. Taj’s distributions are pre-tax. She sets aside her own tax allocation (typically 30 to 35% of distributions for federal + NC state + self-employment) into a separate account.
- Depreciation. Tenant-owned buildout ($15K cash portion) is depreciated over 7 years for tax purposes but does not affect cash flow. Landlord TI is landlord’s depreciation, not ours. Talked about at tax time, not in monthly review.
- Owner health insurance and benefits. Taj carries her own or via COBRA from prior employment. Business does not fund this Phase 1.
- Equipment lease buyout at month 36. Roughly $1,100 to buy out the leased equipment at end of term (10% of original). Decided at the time based on cash position; may just renew.
- Phase 2 detail. Modeled roughly here. Full Phase 2 model rebuilt in 2028.