STUDIO NOIR · 3-Year Financial Model
Phase 1 (2027 to 2029) modeled at base case under the current capital stack ($84K cash equity + Chase business credit facility as buildout bridge, undrawn at open + equipment lease). No landlord TI is assumed in the Phase 1 baseline; any TI negotiated is upside. Phase 2 (2029+) modeled roughly, rebuilt in 2028 with real numbers.
Every line traceable to unit economics ([[unit-economics]]) or budget ([[startup-budget]]).
Year 1 (2027, partial — opens mid-year)
Assumes full open July 2027. Six months of operating revenue in the year.
| Category | Amount | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Membership revenue (ramped from 15 to 60 members) | $67,000 | Half-year run rate |
| Drop-ins, private lessons, merch | $12,000 | Ramp partial |
| Total revenue Y1 | $79,000 | |
| Rent (12 months, all-in with no TI amortization) | $48,000 | $4,000/mo × 12 |
| Utilities + insurance | $12,000 | |
| Booking software | $6,000 | |
| Contract instructors | $28,000 | Ramps with class schedule |
| Equipment lease | $4,800 | $400/mo × 12, starts at delivery |
| Cleaning + supplies + marketing + processing + accounting | $17,000 | |
| Merch cost of goods | $3,000 | |
| Total operating costs Y1 | $118,800 | |
| Operating cash flow Y1 | -$39,800 | Loss funded by opening reserve draw and, if needed, Chase LoC bridge |
Year 1 note: Y1 is negative because we’re funding a full year of rent during a half-year of full operations. The $84K opening budget includes $32K reserve to cover this; the Chase credit facility (~$75K undrawn) is the bridge before the reserve is touched. By month 4-5 of operations we are cash flow positive month-over-month.
Year 2 (2028, first full year)
Assumes 65 to 75 active members average across the year.
| Category | Amount |
|---|---|
| Membership revenue | $210,000 |
| Drop-ins | $10,000 |
| Private lessons | $13,000 |
| Merch + events | $10,000 |
| Total revenue Y2 | $243,000 |
| Rent | $48,000 |
| Utilities + insurance | $12,500 |
| Booking software | $6,000 |
| Contract instructors | $34,000 |
| Equipment lease | $4,800 |
| Cleaning + supplies + marketing + processing + accounting | $23,000 |
| Merch cost of goods | $5,000 |
| Total operating costs Y2 | $133,300 |
| Operating cash flow Y2 | +$109,700 |
Distribution to Taj Y2: approximately $85,000 (spread across the year, after quarterly Founder Financial Review). Retain balance in cash reserve refill, any Chase LoC/Ink pay-down, and working capital cushion. Any drawn credit gets paid down before distributions.
Year 3 (2029)
Two scenarios depending on whether Phase 2 activates.
3A. Phase 2 not activated (boutique continues as permanent)
Assumes 75 to 85 active members steady across the year.
| Category | Amount |
|---|---|
| Membership revenue | $240,000 |
| Drop-ins | $13,000 |
| Private lessons | $15,000 |
| Merch + events | $12,000 |
| Total revenue Y3 | $280,000 |
| Rent | $48,000 |
| Equipment lease | $4,800 |
| All other operating costs (small increases for instructor bench, insurance) | $85,000 |
| Total operating costs Y3 | $137,800 |
| Operating cash flow Y3 | +$142,200 |
Distribution to Taj Y3: approximately $120,000.
3B. Phase 2 activates (buildout begins Q3 2029)
Boutique continues operating through Phase 2 buildout. Same operating cash flow as 3A. Trill spends Q1 and Q2 2029 raising Phase 2 capital.
Phase 2 raise target: $3.5M to $5M.
Phase 2 capital stack (rough draft, rebuilt in 2028): - Phase 1 retained earnings distributed to Taj, reinvested into Phase 2: $120K to $250K - Trill’s cash contribution (if any): $100K to $500K - SBA 7(a) loan: $750K to $1.5M - Landlord TI allowance (flagship scale): $500K to $1.2M - Equipment financing (broadcast + recovery + fitness): $150K to $300K - HNW angel round (5 to 10 accredited investors): $1.5M to $2.5M
Phase 2 buildout Q3 2029 through Q2 2030. Flagship opens Q3 or Q4 2030.
Rolling P&L summary (base case, Phase 1 only, 3 years)
| Line | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 (3A) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $79,000 | $243,000 | $280,000 |
| Operating costs | $118,800 | $133,300 | $137,800 |
| Operating cash flow | -$39,800 | +$109,700 | +$142,200 |
| Cumulative operating cash flow | -$39,800 | +$69,900 | +$212,100 |
Plus Phase 1 opening capital of $84,000 in.
3-year cash summary: - Cash in (Taj’s $84K opening): $84,000 - Cash out (Year 1 loss): -$39,800 - Cash in (Year 2 profit): +$109,700 - Cash in (Year 3 profit, 3A scenario): +$142,200 - Distributions to Taj (Y2 + Y3): -$205,000 - Cash remaining in business end of Year 3: approximately $91,000 (reserve fully refilled at $32K + working capital + any Chase LoC/Ink balance paid down before distributions)
Vs the prior TI-baseline plan, monthly rent is $1,000 lower and fixed opex drops by ~$12K/yr, which more than makes up for zero landlord TI. The Chase credit facility (undrawn in the base case) is the bridge if buildout or ramp surprises hit. Taj’s personal capital outside the $84K is an additional last-resort backstop, not modeled.
Bear case (things run slow)
- Year 1 loss: -$58,000 (deeper draw on reserve + partial Chase LoC draw for buildout bridge)
- Year 2 cash flow: +$42,000
- Year 3 cash flow: +$67,000
- Distributions Y2 + Y3: $45,000 to Taj (after paying down any drawn Chase LoC balance first)
- Reserve back to $32K by end of Year 3; LoC repaid
- Phase 2 delayed to 2031
Bear case survives. The Chase credit facility keeps the reserve intact during the deepest ramp months. If the LoC also proves inadequate and one final push to cashflow is still needed, Taj’s personal capital backstop (not modeled) is the last-resort layer. Phase 2 timeline slips. Wind-down optionality remains clean if things stay bad through end of Year 3.
Bull case (things run faster)
- Year 1 loss: -$10,000 (fast ramp covers most opex; Chase LoC never touched)
- Year 2 cash flow: +$167,000
- Year 3 cash flow: +$207,000
- Distributions Y2 + Y3: $275,000 to Taj
- Phase 2 raise conversation activates in Q4 2028 (6 months early)
- Phase 2 opens Q1 or Q2 2030
Key line items to watch monthly
- Revenue vs plan (biggest signal)
- Member count vs plan
- Class fill rate
- Churn rate
- Reserve balance vs $32K target (and any Chase LoC / Ink card balance vs zero)
- Instructor cost as % of revenue (target under 20%)
- Rent + lease + insurance as % of revenue (target under 40% steady state)
What this model does not include
- Taxes. Taj’s distributions are pre-tax. She sets aside her own tax allocation (typically 30 to 35% of distributions for federal + NC state + self-employment) into a separate account.
- Depreciation. Tenant-owned buildout ($30K cash portion) is depreciated over 7 years for tax purposes but does not affect cash flow. If any landlord TI is negotiated (not baseline), that portion is the landlord’s depreciation, not ours. Talked about at tax time, not in monthly review.
- Owner health insurance and benefits. Taj carries her own or via COBRA from prior employment. Business does not fund this Phase 1.
- Equipment lease buyout at month 36. Roughly $1,100 to buy out the leased equipment at end of term (10% of original). Decided at the time based on cash position; may just renew.
- Phase 2 detail. Modeled roughly here. Full Phase 2 model rebuilt in 2028.