STUDIO NOIR · Cash Flow Forecast

Month-by-month cash in and cash out for Phase 1 under the two-lever capital stack ($85K cash + landlord TI + equipment lease). What Trill and Taj watch every first Monday.

Cash flow = money actually moving in and out of the bank account. Not accounting profit. Real money.

The opening balance

• Taj deposits $85,000 into the STUDIO NOIR OpCo LLC business bank account on Day 1.
• Immediately, $45,000 transfers to a separate business savings account labeled “STUDIO NOIR RESERVE - DO NOT TOUCH.”
• $40,000 remains in the operating checking account for legal, lease deposit, cash buildout, and pre-open marketing.

Landlord TI (~$50,000) flows landlord-to-contractor during buildout, never through STUDIO NOIR’s bank account. Equipment lease (~$11,000 principal) flows lessor-to-vendor at delivery, also never through STUDIO NOIR’s account.

Pre-open period (Aug 2026 through Jun 2027, roughly 10 months)

Most of the $40,000 operating checking gets spent on legal, lease deposit, cash buildout, and marketing during this window. Then we enter operations with a near-empty operating account and a $45,000 reserve.

By opening day, most of the $40K operating tranche is spent. We rely on the $45K reserve plus incoming member revenue from month 1.

Equipment lease first payment ($400) hits at delivery, typically month 5 of buildout (April 2027). Landlord TI covers its share of buildout in parallel, invoiced landlord-to-GC.

Operations period (Jul 2027 through Jun 2028, first 12 months of full operations)

Base case ramp. Membership revenue grows from ~$5.7K/mo (soft open) to ~$17K/mo (steady state approaching).

New fixed opex: $8,900/mo (rent + utilities + insurance + software + cleaning + equipment lease + supplies). Variable: instructor $2,880/mo at 12 classes/week. Total steady monthly cost: ~$11,780.

Year 1 highlights: - Reserve draws total $7,500 across the first 4 months of operations. Reserve refilled to $45K by May 2028. - First full month of positive operating cash flow: November 2027 (month 5). - First distribution to Taj: June 2028 (month 12), $4,000. Small first check. - Cash in operating account by end of first 12 months of operations: about $12K plus reserve fully refilled to $45K.

Compared to the old cash-only plan, distributions to Taj start about one month later, but she’s protected by a bigger reserve throughout the ramp.

Year 2 (Jul 2028 through Jun 2029)

Steady state at 65 to 75 members. Distributions to Taj become regular.

Reserve stays at $45K throughout. Cash surplus in operating account after distributions: about $18K (working capital).

The waterfall (order of cash use every month)

Every dollar that comes in follows this order:

1. Rent, insurance, utilities, equipment lease. Fixed obligations. Pay first, no exceptions.
2. Contract instructor pay. Independent contractors, paid weekly. Pay second.
3. Supplies, software subscriptions, cleaning. Recurring operational costs.
4. Reserve replenishment. If reserve is below $45K, first surplus dollars go here.
5. Trill + Taj compensation review. First Monday of the month. If reserve is at $45K and operating account has cushion of at least one month’s opex ($12K+), distribution to Taj is authorized.
6. Marketing spend beyond baseline. Only after 1 through 5 are satisfied.
7. Reinvestment (upgrades, new equipment, extra events). Only from clear surplus.

No exceptions. Especially for step 4. The reserve gets refilled before any distribution.

Equipment lease line lives in step 1, not step 3. It’s a fixed obligation like rent.

Reserve rules (the hard lines)

Bear case cash stress

If membership ramp runs 30% slower than base case: - Reserve gets drawn to $32K by month 6 of operations. - Operating cash flow doesn’t turn positive until month 8. - First distribution to Taj delayed 6 months (to Dec 2028 instead of Jun 2028). - Reserve stays below $40K until end of Year 1. - Business survives but pinches.

If membership ramp runs 50% slower than base case: - Reserve drained to $15K by month 9. - Emergency intervention required: cut class schedule to bare minimum, instructor bench cut to 2, marketing paused. - Trill’s personal line of credit may need to bridge $5K to $10K for one to two months. - If ramp doesn’t recover by month 12, hard decision: shrink further, negotiate lease abatement with landlord (TI amortization is renegotiable if landlord doesn’t want to lose tenant), or wind down cleanly (equipment returns to lessor, buildout stays with landlord, Taj recovers a portion of security deposit).

The two-lever stack’s real bear-case advantage: wind-down is cleaner. Landlord keeps the buildout they paid for. Equipment lessor takes back their gear. Taj is not stuck holding $40K of forced-sale fitness equipment.

First Monday review (the monthly ritual)

Every first Monday of the month, Trill and Taj do a 30-minute call. Agenda:

1. Cash position. Operating balance + reserve balance. Compare to last month.
2. Member count. Total active, net change (adds vs churn).
3. Revenue vs plan. Actual last month vs plan for that month.
4. Reserve status. Above or below $45K target.
5. Distribution decision. Is Taj drawing this month? Amount?
6. Fixed obligations current? Rent, insurance, equipment lease. Confirm all paid.
7. Any big red flags. Landlord issues, instructor issues, safety issues.
8. Any big green signals. Waitlist spikes, press hits, referral surges.

That’s it. 30 minutes. Written notes go into the shared cash tracker.

If anything on that list needs longer than 30 minutes, a separate call gets scheduled. The monthly is a health check, not a strategy session.

Related docs

• Startup budget: [[startup-budget]]
• Unit economics: [[unit-economics]]
• Revenue model: [[revenue-model]]
• Three-year P&L: [[3yr-financial-model]]
• Capital stack: [[capital-stack]]
• Break-even: [[break-even]]
• Founder distribution rules: [[founder-distributions]]