STUDIO NOIR · Cash Flow Forecast
Month-by-month cash in and cash out for Phase 1 under the current capital stack ($84K cash equity + Chase business credit facility as undrawn bridge + equipment lease). No landlord TI is assumed in the baseline. What Trill and Taj watch every first Monday.
Cash flow = money actually moving in and out of the bank account. Not accounting profit. Real money.
The opening balance
- Taj deposits $84,000 into the STUDIO NOIR OpCo LLC business bank account (Mercury Operating) on Day 1.
- Immediately, $32,000 transfers to a separate business savings account labeled “STUDIO NOIR RESERVE - DO NOT TOUCH.”
- $52,000 remains in the operating checking account for legal, lease deposit, cash buildout, and pre-open marketing.
The Chase business credit facility (Ink Business Preferred + Business Line of Credit, ~$75K total available) opens in Weeks 2-3 after Mercury funds and sits undrawn. It is the buildout bridge and emergency reserve, not planned spending.
Equipment lease (~$11,000 principal) flows lessor-to-vendor at delivery, never through STUDIO NOIR’s account. Any landlord TI negotiated would flow landlord-to-contractor during buildout — but the baseline plan assumes zero TI, so this line does not run in the base case.
Pre-open period (Aug 2026 through Jun 2027, roughly 10 months)
Most of the $52,000 operating checking gets spent on legal, lease deposit, cash buildout (now the full scope since no TI is assumed), and marketing during this window. Then we enter operations with a near-empty operating account, a $32,000 reserve, and a ~$75K Chase credit facility undrawn as backstop.
| Month | Big cash outflows | Running operating balance |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | Legal + LLC + attorney: $2,700 | $49,300 |
| Sep 2026 | Trademark filings: $1,300 | $48,000 |
| Oct 2026 | Property tour costs: $0; brand book: $0 (Tia in-house) | $48,000 |
| Nov 2026 | LOI signed, no cash out | $48,000 |
| Dec 2026 | Lease + attorney review: $1,500 | $46,500 |
| Jan 2027 | Lease deposit + first + last (rent ~$4K/mo): $12,000 | $34,500 |
| Feb 2027 | Cash buildout draw: $10,000 (full-scope buildout, no TI offset) | $24,500 |
| Mar 2027 | Cash buildout draw: $10,000; ad spend begins $500 | $14,000 |
| Apr 2027 | Cash buildout finish + concierge appointments: $10,000; ad spend $500 | $3,500 |
| May 2027 | Signage + welcome kits + supplies: $1,750; ad spend $500 | $1,250 |
| Jun 2027 | Soft-open prep prosecco + linens + florals: $1,000; ad spend $500; charter cohort first month ~$4,000 revenue in | $3,750 |
By opening day, most of the $52K operating tranche is spent. We rely on the $32K reserve plus the Chase credit facility (undrawn bridge) plus incoming member revenue from month 1. Overruns during buildout draw from the Chase Line of Credit, not the reserve.
Equipment lease first payment ($400) hits at delivery, typically month 5 of buildout (April 2027).
Operations period (Jul 2027 through Jun 2028, first 12 months of full operations)
Base case ramp. Membership revenue grows from ~$5.7K/mo (soft open) to ~$17K/mo (steady state approaching).
New fixed opex: $6,900/mo (rent $4,000 + utilities $450 + insurance $550 + software $500 + cleaning $400 + equipment lease $400 + supplies + misc). Variable: instructor $2,880/mo at 12 classes/week. Total steady monthly cost: ~$9,780.
| Month | Revenue | Operating costs | Net cash | Operating balance | Reserve balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2027 (open) | $5,700 | $8,900 | -$3,200 | Chase LoC bridge or reserve draw $3,500 | $32,000 |
| Aug 2027 | $7,800 | $9,200 | -$1,400 | Reserve draw $1,500 | $30,500 |
| Sep 2027 | $9,600 | $9,400 | +$200 | +$200 | $30,500 |
| Oct 2027 | $11,200 | $9,600 | +$1,600 | +$1,800 | $30,500 |
| Nov 2027 | $12,500 | $9,700 | +$2,800 | +$4,600 | $30,500 |
| Dec 2027 | $13,300 | $9,800 | +$3,500 | +$8,100 | $30,500 |
| Jan 2028 | $14,000 | $9,900 | +$4,100 | +$10,700 (reserve refill $1,500) | $32,000 (refilled) |
| Feb 2028 | $14,800 | $9,950 | +$4,850 | +$15,550 | $32,000 |
| Mar 2028 | $15,540 | $10,000 | +$5,540 | +$21,090 | $32,000 |
| Apr 2028 | $16,000 | $10,050 | +$5,950 | +$27,040 | $32,000 |
| May 2028 | $16,500 | $10,100 | +$6,400 | +$29,440 (first dist $4,000 to Taj) | $32,000 |
| Jun 2028 | $17,000 | $10,150 | +$6,850 | +$32,290 (dist $4,000 to Taj) | $32,000 |
Year 1 highlights: - Reserve draws total $5,000 across the first 2 months of operations. Reserve refilled to $32K by January 2028. Chase LoC undrawn in the base case. - First full month of positive operating cash flow: September 2027 (month 3). - First distribution to Taj: May 2028 (month 11), $4,000. Small first check. - Cash in operating account by end of first 12 months of operations: about $32K plus reserve fully refilled to $32K.
Vs the prior TI-baseline plan, distributions start one month earlier and monthly clean cash to Taj runs $1,000-$2,000 higher because rent is $1,000/mo lower without TI amortization. The Chase LoC is the safety net that lets the reserve stay untouched deeper into the ramp.
Year 2 (Jul 2028 through Jun 2029)
Steady state at 65 to 75 members. Distributions to Taj become regular.
| Quarter | Avg monthly revenue | Avg monthly operating costs | Avg monthly clean cash | Quarterly distribution to Taj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2028 (Jul-Sep) | $18,000 | $10,200 | $7,800 | $18,000 ($6,000/mo) |
| Q4 2028 (Oct-Dec) | $19,000 | $10,400 | $8,600 | $21,000 ($7,000/mo) |
| Q1 2029 (Jan-Mar) | $20,000 | $10,500 | $9,500 | $24,000 ($8,000/mo) |
| Q2 2029 (Apr-Jun) | $20,500 | $10,600 | $9,900 | $27,000 ($9,000/mo) |
| Y2 total | $90,000 to Taj |
Reserve stays at $32K throughout. Chase LoC and Ink card balances stay at zero (or paid down to zero before any distribution). Cash surplus in operating account after distributions: about $20K (working capital).
The waterfall (order of cash use every month)
Every dollar that comes in follows this order:
- Rent, insurance, utilities, equipment lease. Fixed obligations. Pay first, no exceptions.
- Contract instructor pay. Independent contractors, paid weekly. Pay second.
- Supplies, software subscriptions, cleaning. Recurring operational costs.
- Reserve replenishment. If reserve is below $32K, first surplus dollars go here.
- Chase credit facility pay-down. Any drawn Chase LoC or Ink card balance gets paid down from retained earnings before distributions. Pay LoC first, then Ink card.
- Trill + Taj compensation review. First Monday of the month. If reserve is at $32K, Chase balances are at $0, and operating account has cushion of at least one month’s opex ($10K+), distribution to Taj is authorized.
- Marketing spend beyond baseline. Only after 1 through 6 are satisfied.
- Reinvestment (upgrades, new equipment, extra events). Only from clear surplus.
No exceptions. Especially steps 4 and 5. The reserve gets refilled AND any drawn credit gets paid down before any distribution.
Equipment lease line lives in step 1, not step 3. It’s a fixed obligation like rent.
Reserve rules (the hard lines)
| Reserve balance | What happens |
|---|---|
| At $32,000 (target) | Normal operations. Distributions to Taj authorized if operating cushion holds and any Chase balance is at $0. |
| $22,000 to $32,000 | Warning. No new discretionary spend. Distribution to Taj paused. Refill reserve from operating surplus. Consider whether to draw the Chase LoC to preserve the reserve rather than continue drawing it down. |
| $10,000 to $22,000 | Serious. Emergency Trill + Taj call. Draw the Chase LoC to buy runway before further reserve draws. Class schedule may cut, instructor bench pared, marketing paused. |
| Below $10,000 | Critical. Chase LoC is the active bridge. No spending outside rent, insurance, utilities, equipment lease, and one instructor. If the LoC is also close to exhausted, Taj’s personal capital backstop (not modeled) becomes the last-resort layer. If reserve + LoC both approach exhaustion, prepare wind-down conversation with landlord and equipment lessor. |
Bear case cash stress
If membership ramp runs 30% slower than base case: - Reserve gets drawn to $22K by month 6 of operations, or Chase LoC drawn ~$10K to preserve reserve. - Operating cash flow doesn’t turn positive until month 6-7. - First distribution to Taj delayed 4-6 months (to Sep-Nov 2028 instead of May 2028). - Reserve rebuilt (and any LoC balance paid down) by end of Year 1. - Business survives comfortably.
If membership ramp runs 50% slower than base case: - Reserve drained to $10K and Chase LoC drawn $25-40K by month 9. - Emergency intervention required: cut class schedule to bare minimum, instructor bench cut to 2, marketing paused. - If the LoC also proves inadequate, Taj’s personal capital backstop (not modeled) is the last-resort layer, sized only for one final push to cashflow. - If ramp doesn’t recover by month 12, hard decision: shrink further, negotiate lease abatement or free-rent extension with landlord, or wind down cleanly (equipment returns to lessor, tenant-owned buildout stays with the space, Taj recovers a portion of security deposit).
The current stack’s bear-case advantage: the Chase credit facility absorbs shocks before the reserve is touched, and the wind-down is cleaner than the prior TI-baseline plan because Taj is not holding forced-sale fitness equipment (equipment lessor takes back their gear).
First Monday review (the monthly ritual)
Every first Monday of the month, Trill and Taj do a 30-minute call. Agenda:
- Cash position. Operating balance + reserve balance + Chase LoC balance + Chase Ink balance. Compare to last month.
- Member count. Total active, net change (adds vs churn).
- Revenue vs plan. Actual last month vs plan for that month.
- Reserve status. At or below $32K target.
- Chase credit status. Any drawn balances? Repayment on schedule?
- Distribution decision. Is Taj drawing this month? Amount? (Only if reserve at $32K, Chase balances at $0, and operating cushion holds.)
- Fixed obligations current? Rent, insurance, equipment lease. Confirm all paid.
- Any big red flags. Landlord issues, instructor issues, safety issues.
- Any big green signals. Waitlist spikes, press hits, referral surges.
That’s it. 30 minutes. Written notes go into the shared cash tracker.
If anything on that list needs longer than 30 minutes, a separate call gets scheduled. The monthly is a health check, not a strategy session.
Related docs
- Startup budget: [[startup-budget]]
- Unit economics: [[unit-economics]]
- Revenue model: [[revenue-model]]
- Three-year P&L: [[3yr-financial-model]]
- Capital stack: [[capital-stack]]
- Break-even: [[break-even]]
- Founder distribution rules: [[founder-distributions]]